Guest: Peter Bishop
Location: Sacramento, California, USA
Interview Date: Saturday, 28 March 2020
Interviewed By: Peter Hayward in Melbourne, Australia.
Dr. Peter C. Bishop is the Exec Director of Teach the Future, Inc., having retired as an Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight and Director of the graduate program in Foresight at the University of Houston.
Peter Bishop speaks about how a new era is possible, though not guaranteed; this historical moment breaks the frame, opening up the possibility for innovation, or we might snap back to how we were before. The disruption is already causing a great deal of risk and suffering and the financial debts will burden future generations. There is potential for radical change in education with a recognition of the importance of public health and planning for a world of increased frequency and depth of disruption.
Foresight in a Time of Coronavirus Series
The COVID-19 pandemic is moving rapidly around the world. Extinguishing our expected futures and opening up the possibilities of different ones.
At FuturePod we have decided to speak to our previous guests, to ask them what this particular moment in time means to them, and more importantly, to us all.
Resources from Peter
I’m sure most of you have heard of Dr. Anthony Fauci, Head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the U.S. National Institute of Health. He is one of the world’s leading experts on infectious diseases beginning with HIV in 1984. He is by far the most authoritative and respected spokesperson on the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. I heard him answer questions from reporters at the White House last Tue -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skMdBYNDfDk (Fauci’s part begins at 53:00.) What struck me was that he was speaking exactly the way we in the futures community want every authority, every spokesperson, every journalist, every person to be speaking. The contrast between what the journalists wanted in their questions (i.e., precise predictions) and his answers (ranges and inherent uncertainty) was stunning:
Question: When will we know that we are bending the curve of new infections? Answer: We don’t know when the measures we are taking will show an effect. And they could even be having an effect before it shows in the data. IOW, we don’t know.
Question: When do you think you will have to advise the President to take more severe restrictions. Fauci: Same answer, we don’t know.
Gov Cuomo of NY said that the epidemic would last 45 days. Fauci: That number is reasonable, but it’s not a good idea to give a specific date because you could be wrong and have to retract it. Better to give a range (which he does).
CDC recommends no gatherings of 10 or more, but Gov of AL said 25 or more. Question: Which is correct? Fauci: They are both reasonable recommendations, but we live in the United States where everyone doing exactly the same thing is not required or even advisable, and that the difference between those numbers is not important anyway. Stay away from large groups.
We're On Pandemic Time Now (Podcast - On the Media) - Brook Gladstone, lead journalist for On the Media, a podcast, stated the futures case perfectly.
Christopher Lydon, Open Source Radio Show - The story of the Yogi who asked the Buddha to explain Buddhism in one word.